Las Vegas wise guys took the points with Detroit, San Diego and Buffalo in NFL Week 3 action, while the public parlay bettors are all over the other side. Who would you tend to agree with? Station casino.
While more money might be bet on the side the general public likes, sports books move the point spreads based on the sharp side because they're wiser, hence the name.
They bet for a living. They also do very well. Book directors respect their money more than the average Joe making his 6-team parlay and by following their lead, the books make millions annually.
However, we have a rare occasion this week where the wise guys and public both agree on Baltimore winning at Jacksonville. Imagine that. A sharp square.
The wise guys also are all over the Jets like they've read Monday's newspaper. Getting a field goal or more, that is.
Let's get you set for the best day of the week with my betting rundown on all 14 Sunday games. My five official plays are noted below.
Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick says this is the most wagered game of the week at his 17 books across Las Vegas. The Broncos have won and covered their first two games, but this will be Trevor Siemian's first road start. Meanwhile, Andy Dalton's ankle is a little banged up but he will play. The Bengals have gone 13-4-2 against the spread in their last 19 games.
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The Raiders have given up a league-worst 517 yards per game, but they're one of the most bet public sides in parlay cards. That should immediately point you in the direction of betting the home team, but Oakland has covered its last four road games. The Over has cashed in Oakland's last six September games.
The public hates the 0-2 Bills and loves the Cardinals after seeing them put a 40-spot on the Bucs last week. But sharp money does matter and a West Coast team playing a 10 a.m. Pacific time game in the Eastern time zone usually favors the home team. Last week's win was the first cover by Arizona after it failed to live up to its power rating in its previous four games.
This is a lot of weight to carry with sharps and squares on the same side. They don't build beautiful sports book all across Las Vegas just to make things comfortable for guests. Baltimore has covered its last five road games. But the home team has gone 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
Rookie QB Cody Kessler makes his first NFL start and it's on the road, but no one is lining up to lay such a big number with 0-2 Miami. The Browns have covered only twice in their last 12 games -- 0-2 ATS this season.
The desperate 0-2 Redskins have lots of believers with big money in Las Vegas that's dropped this number two full points points from the opener of Giants -5. The home team has covered four of the past five meetings. The biggest trend is Washington going Over the total in its last seven games.
The Lions won last year at Green Bay for the first time since 1991 and they would have swept the Pack if not for a successful Hail Mary. Detroit has won three of the past five meetings and wise guys took +8 and +7.5 with them earlier in the week. The home team has gone 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings, and the Packers have stayed Under the total in their last six home games.
The Panthers faced a menacing defense at Denver in Week 1 and they get another at home this week when the Vikings visit. Minnesota loves the road, having covered its last eight away games. Large money pushed many sports books off +7 with Minnesota action. The Vikings have gone 14-5-1 to the Under in their last 20 games. Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology sportsbooks, says this game has drawn more action than any other. The public likes Carolina a lot. Wise guys on are Minnesota.
The Seahawks are averaging only 7.5 points through two games but they allow only 9.5. Seattle is normally a very public team, but bettors have jumped off the wagon saying, "Good luck, we'll catch you on the flip side when you're worthy of being a double-digit favorite." Despite the 49ers failing to cover its last nine games against Seattle, sharp money took the +10 earlier in the week. The Seahawks have failed to cover the number in their last four games.
The Bucs get their first home game and you have to wonder who they really are because they looked outstanding at Atlanta, then let an Arizona defense still finding its way completely stop them. The Rams come off another win against Seattle, but it's still hard to forget about their 28-0 loss at San Francisco in Week 1. The Rams are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven road games while the Bucs are 1-5 ATS in their last six overall.
This is the only game Sunday with teams colliding that are 2-0 straight-up and ATS. South Point sports book director Chris Andrews says the buildup for this game is huge and has generated the most action on Sunday's card. Before Monday night's Eagles' road win, the Westgate Superbook had the Steelers -5.5. You have to admit rookie QB Carson Wentz looks pretty polished and manages the game well.
As mentioned, wise guys swamped the books with cash on the Jets +3.5 and +3. It takes a ton of money for a book to cross over 3, like happened in this game at many books that are now dealing K.C. -2.5. Bookmakers always protect the house and stand strong on 3 to avoid putting themselves in a middle situation. Kansas City started at -3.5 and is down to -2.5 at the South Point. The Jets have covered the number once in the last six meetings.
Throw out San Diego's second-half collapse at Kansas City in Week 1 and it could be argued the Chargers have been one of the most impressive clubs so far. They look like a well-oiled machine and they face a desperate, disappointing 0-2 Colts squad that most feel is way overrated. Wise guys do, anyways. They like the Chargers so much in this spot they jumped all over +3, and they wanted some +2.5, too. They also said "thank you" with +2. The public parlay bettors like the Colts, of course.
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Brian Hoyer gets the start Sunday night and while he doesn't have Jay Cutler's physical attributes, the guy knows how to run an offense. He posted comparable numbers to Cutler last year in fewer games and won four of his last six regular-season games to lead the Texans to the playoffs. Cutler has led the Bears to one playoff berth in seven seasons. However, the Bears have lots of injuries on both sides of the ball and the Cowboys come in fired up after a big comeback win at Washington. Wise guys felt +7 was too much to give and took the Bears. The public absolutely loves the Cowboys in the perfect case of believing what they saw last as gospel.
Good luck in all your betting ventures this week with hopes of Lady Luck finding all your wallets.